M. Arnaldi vs T. Fritz
Shanghai · ATP · HARD · Originally scheduled 2026-10-10
Prediction and result
Predicted winner: T. Fritz · Confidence 6.3 / 10
Pre-match decimal odds · 18+: M. Arnaldi 4.00 · T. Fritz 1.25
Finished · 5-7 4-6 · Prediction correct
Recorded before play: 2026-10-08T18:12:02.000Z. Original odds and prediction values are preserved; missing odds are shown as —.
What supported the original prediction?
The saved pre-match comparison favoured T. Fritz on weighted all-surface win rate: 62.9% versus 44.5% for M. Arnaldi. This was one input to the original prediction, not a win probability.
Recorded limitation: 0 invalid and 11 unverified-surface historical matches were excluded where required.
This summary describes the saved pre-match figures. The final result is not used to generate it.
Saved statistical comparisons
Weighted all-surface win rate
Recent results have more weight. Match results account for 73% of the final strength calculation.
M. Arnaldi: 44% · T. Fritz: 63%
Hard-court weighted win rate
Surface results make up 25% of the results calculation. Smaller samples reduce this share.
M. Arnaldi: 41% · T. Fritz: 62%
Serve and return performance
Serve and return statistics account for 27% of the strength calculation. Limited coverage and small samples reduce their influence.
M. Arnaldi: 49% · T. Fritz: 53%
Incomplete Data. Confidence is a model assessment, not a guarantee or calibrated win probability.
Model-generated analysis by TennisDollar. About the service · Methodology and limitations
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