C. Ugo Carabelli vs F. Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai · ATP · HARD · Originally scheduled 2026-10-10
Prediction and result
Predicted winner: F. Auger-Aliassime · Confidence 6.6 / 10
Pre-match decimal odds · 18+: C. Ugo Carabelli 13.00 · F. Auger-Aliassime 1.04
Finished · 6-4 6-7(1) 5-7 · Prediction correct
Recorded before play: 2026-10-08T18:12:21.922Z. Original odds and prediction values are preserved; missing odds are shown as —.
What supported the original prediction?
The saved pre-match comparison favoured F. Auger-Aliassime on weighted all-surface win rate: 64.3% versus 42.6% for C. Ugo Carabelli. This was one input to the original prediction, not a win probability.
Recorded limitation: 0 invalid and 6 unverified-surface historical matches were excluded where required.
This summary describes the saved pre-match figures. The final result is not used to generate it.
Saved statistical comparisons
Weighted all-surface win rate
Recent results have more weight. Match results account for 72% of the final strength calculation.
C. Ugo Carabelli: 43% · F. Auger-Aliassime: 64%
Hard-court weighted win rate
Surface results make up 22% of the results calculation. Smaller samples reduce this share.
C. Ugo Carabelli: 35% · F. Auger-Aliassime: 64%
Serve and return performance
Serve and return statistics account for 28% of the strength calculation. Limited coverage and small samples reduce their influence.
C. Ugo Carabelli: 47% · F. Auger-Aliassime: 52%
Incomplete Data. Confidence is a model assessment, not a guarantee or calibrated win probability.
Model-generated analysis by TennisDollar. About the service · Methodology and limitations
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