J. M. Cerundolo vs C. Alcaraz
Shanghai · ATP · HARD · Originally scheduled 2026-10-10
Prediction and result
Predicted winner: C. Alcaraz · Confidence 7.1 / 10
Pre-match decimal odds · 18+: J. M. Cerundolo 15.00 · C. Alcaraz 1.03
Finished · 3-6 3-6 · Prediction correct
Recorded before play: 2026-10-08T18:17:20.557Z. Original odds and prediction values are preserved; missing odds are shown as —.
What supported the original prediction?
The saved pre-match comparison favoured C. Alcaraz on weighted all-surface win rate: 78.9% versus 48.3% for J. M. Cerundolo. This was one input to the original prediction, not a win probability.
Recorded limitation: 0 invalid and 1 unverified-surface historical matches were excluded where required.
This summary describes the saved pre-match figures. The final result is not used to generate it.
Saved statistical comparisons
Weighted all-surface win rate
Recent results have more weight. Match results account for 71% of the final strength calculation.
J. M. Cerundolo: 48% · C. Alcaraz: 79%
Hard-court weighted win rate
Surface results make up 25% of the results calculation. Smaller samples reduce this share.
J. M. Cerundolo: 47% · C. Alcaraz: 76%
Serve and return performance
Serve and return statistics account for 29% of the strength calculation. Limited coverage and small samples reduce their influence.
J. M. Cerundolo: 49% · C. Alcaraz: 54%
Incomplete Data. Confidence is a model assessment, not a guarantee or calibrated win probability.
Model-generated analysis by TennisDollar. About the service · Methodology and limitations
Browse all published results →