I. Swiatek vs M. Chwalinska
Wuhan · WTA · HARD · Originally scheduled 2026-10-17
Prediction and result
Predicted winner: I. Swiatek · Confidence 6.2 / 10
Pre-match decimal odds · 18+: I. Swiatek 1.14 · M. Chwalinska 5.50
Finished · 5-7 1-6 · Prediction incorrect
Recorded before play: 2026-10-16T22:12:03.245Z. Original odds and prediction values are preserved; missing odds are shown as —.
What supported the original prediction?
The saved pre-match comparison favoured I. Swiatek on weighted all-surface win rate: 71.9% versus 56.8% for M. Chwalinska. This was one input to the original prediction, not a win probability.
Recorded limitation: 0 invalid and 16 unverified-surface historical matches were excluded where required.
This summary describes the saved pre-match figures. The final result is not used to generate it.
Saved statistical comparisons
Weighted all-surface win rate
Recent results have more weight. Match results account for 75% of the final strength calculation.
I. Swiatek: 72% · M. Chwalinska: 57%
Hard-court weighted win rate
Surface results make up 26% of the results calculation. Smaller samples reduce this share.
I. Swiatek: 72% · M. Chwalinska: 53%
Serve and return performance
Serve and return statistics account for 25% of the strength calculation. Limited coverage and small samples reduce their influence.
I. Swiatek: 55% · M. Chwalinska: 52%
Incomplete Data. Confidence is a model assessment, not a guarantee or calibrated win probability.
Model-generated analysis by TennisDollar. About the service · Methodology and limitations
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