D. Medvedev vs S. Shimabukuro
Almaty · ATP · HARD · Originally scheduled 2026-10-22
Prediction and result
Predicted winner: D. Medvedev · Confidence 7.2 / 10
Pre-match decimal odds · 18+: D. Medvedev 1.07 · S. Shimabukuro 9.00
Finished · 6-2 6-1 · Prediction correct
Recorded before play: 2026-10-21T18:01:07.448Z. Original odds and prediction values are preserved; missing odds are shown as —.
What supported the original prediction?
The saved pre-match comparison favoured D. Medvedev on weighted all-surface win rate: 67.7% versus 40.0% for S. Shimabukuro. This was one input to the original prediction, not a win probability.
Recorded limitation: 0 invalid and 2 unverified-surface historical matches were excluded where required.
This summary describes the saved pre-match figures. The final result is not used to generate it.
Saved statistical comparisons
Weighted all-surface win rate
Recent results have more weight. Match results account for 76% of the final strength calculation.
D. Medvedev: 68% · S. Shimabukuro: 40%
Hard-court weighted win rate
Surface results make up 24% of the results calculation. Smaller samples reduce this share.
D. Medvedev: 69% · S. Shimabukuro: 33%
Serve and return performance
Serve and return statistics account for 24% of the strength calculation. Limited coverage and small samples reduce their influence.
D. Medvedev: 53% · S. Shimabukuro: 48%
Incomplete Data. Confidence is a model assessment, not a guarantee or calibrated win probability.
Model-generated analysis by TennisDollar. About the service · Methodology and limitations
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