Z. Bergs vs C. Alcaraz
Shanghai · ATP · HARD · Originally scheduled 2026-10-12
Prediction and result
Predicted winner: C. Alcaraz · Confidence 7.0 / 10
Pre-match decimal odds · 18+: Z. Bergs 9.00 · C. Alcaraz 1.07
Finished · 7-5 7-6(4) · Prediction incorrect
Recorded before play: 2026-10-11T02:30:01.658Z. Original odds and prediction values are preserved; missing odds are shown as —.
What supported the original prediction?
The saved pre-match comparison favoured C. Alcaraz on weighted all-surface win rate: 79.4% versus 50.8% for Z. Bergs. This was one input to the original prediction, not a win probability.
Recorded limitation: 0 invalid and 13 unverified-surface historical matches were excluded where required.
This summary describes the saved pre-match figures. The final result is not used to generate it.
Saved statistical comparisons
Weighted all-surface win rate
Recent results have more weight. Match results account for 70% of the final strength calculation.
Z. Bergs: 51% · C. Alcaraz: 79%
Hard-court weighted win rate
Surface results make up 33% of the results calculation. Smaller samples reduce this share.
Z. Bergs: 49% · C. Alcaraz: 77%
Serve and return performance
Serve and return statistics account for 30% of the strength calculation. Limited coverage and small samples reduce their influence.
Z. Bergs: 51% · C. Alcaraz: 55%
Incomplete Data. Confidence is a model assessment, not a guarantee or calibrated win probability.
Model-generated analysis by TennisDollar. About the service · Methodology and limitations
Browse all published results →