J. Ostapenko vs J. Pegula
Wuhan · WTA · HARD · Originally scheduled 2026-10-14
Prediction and result
Predicted winner: J. Pegula · Confidence 6.4 / 10
Pre-match decimal odds · 18+: J. Ostapenko 3.00 · J. Pegula 1.40
Finished · 2-6 7-6(7) 6-3 · Prediction incorrect
Recorded before play: 2026-10-13T12:59:17.090Z. Original odds and prediction values are preserved; missing odds are shown as —.
What supported the original prediction?
The saved pre-match comparison favoured J. Pegula on weighted all-surface win rate: 71.1% versus 53.5% for J. Ostapenko. This was one input to the original prediction, not a win probability.
Recorded limitation: 0 invalid and 3 unverified-surface historical matches were excluded where required.
This summary describes the saved pre-match figures. The final result is not used to generate it.
Saved statistical comparisons
Weighted all-surface win rate
Recent results have more weight. Match results account for 71% of the final strength calculation.
J. Ostapenko: 54% · J. Pegula: 71%
Hard-court weighted win rate
Surface results make up 30% of the results calculation. Smaller samples reduce this share.
J. Ostapenko: 47% · J. Pegula: 71%
Serve and return performance
Serve and return statistics account for 29% of the strength calculation. Limited coverage and small samples reduce their influence.
J. Ostapenko: 50% · J. Pegula: 53%
Incomplete Data. Confidence is a model assessment, not a guarantee or calibrated win probability.
Model-generated analysis by TennisDollar. About the service · Methodology and limitations
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